U.S. inflation soared to 7.5% in January – a 40-year high.  (Source:  BLS)

 

               U.S. home prices soared 18.5% year-over-year in December – an all-time high.  (Source: CoreLogic)

 

               Because housing prices are currently appreciating faster than the rate of inflation – 18.5% vs 7.5% – homes are still a good place for investment capital.

 

                                       Mortgage Rates Are Rising Too

 

               Due to rising levels of inflation, interest rates have been ratcheting higher since January 2022.   Because of that, mortgage rates spiked to 4.02% on Feb 11th according to Mortgage News Daily – a two-year high.  

 

               That’s a problem, right?

 

               Probably, but not yet.

 

               The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) recently reported that average loan sizes reached a record high ($446,000) during the week ending February 4.  That was the fourth consecutive weekly record high in a row.  

 

                                   The Inventory of Homes for Sale

                                              Continues to Fall

 

               In the last week in January, we set another new record low in available inventory of unsold homes on the market.  There were just 272,000 single family homes for sale in the entire country.  (Source:  Altos Research)

 

               This suggests that home prices have not risen fast enough to balance supply and demand – and even rising mortgage rates have not yet discouraged eager home buyers.

 

               Buyers will complain about the price of a product until that product is in short supply.  Then they will pay any price that is required to get it.

 

                                                 Market Risks

 

               If home sales start declining due to rising mortgage rates, watching the inventory of homes for sale will be key.   When the pandemic is officially declared “over,” people could quickly become less afraid to let potential buyers walk through their homes – and be more willing to put their homes on the market.

 

               We haven’t seen increased inventory hit the market yet – nor a significant downturn in home sales – so it’s likely that this bull market in housing still has a ways to run before peak prices are reached.

 

               But when housing prices do eventually approach a market peak, there will be ample warning – and visible signs – to help us see it coming.

 

                                                               :::::::::::

 

                    “Where Housing Prices are Going – and Why.”

 

               I will be doing a Zoom presentation in the next 30-45 days.   You’ll be notified when you can register.