Subscriber email received on June 1, 2026
Hi Mr. Campbell,
Ballsiest forecast for mortgage rates that I’ve seen! Appreciate you sticking your neck out and having a strong opinion.
Regards,
Dave Allman
Elliott Wave International
ROBERT CAMPBELL’S RESPONSE:
Thanks Dave –
Facts are facts and correlations are correlations.
As you know, my forecast was based on a 56-year history of where inflation is headed (84% correlation) and the 56-year historical spread (3.80 percentage points) between the rate of inflation and mortgage rates.
Successful investment decision-making is always about probabilities.
The probability of a future event is never 0% nor is it ever 100%.
Based on a 56-year history of being right 84% of the time, my belief that mortgage rates going to 12.3% in 2027 is a highly probable event.
Thanks for the email Dave.
Robert Campbell
PS: Like my Dad would always tell me “If people want guarantees in life, buy a toaster.”
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