Food Inflation: 7.1% or 22.6% Per Year?


               If you want to know how much food has gone up in the last 12 months, don’t ask the US government – ask people who shop for food everyday.


               Based on a survey of 8,000 US grocery shoppers nationwide, they said food at home prices rose by an estimated 22.6% from April 2022 to April 2023 – which was more than 15 points higher than the 7.1% inflation number for food reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.



               My wife Pam edits my Timing Letters.  Because Pam is 100% Italian – “Sicilian” to be more precise – she shops for fresh food almost everyday. 


              When editing a Timing Letter from about a year ago, she looked at a government inflation chart that I posted showing food prices had risen 7.8% in the previous 12 months. 


               “That’s complete b*ll sh*t,” Pam laughed, “it’s at least double that.” 


                                                            In Summary


               No, the CPI does measure the real Cost of Living.  Inflation is significantly worse than the government reports – and that’s why I believe mortgage rates are more likely to rise than fall in the months and years ahead. 




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