For the fourth time since 1988, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yield has moved below 0.0%.

 

               As shown by the shaded areas on the chart, each of these time periods preceded U.S. recessions.

 

              1989:  Yield Inversion.  Recession

 

              2000:  Yield Inversion.  Recession

 

              2006:  Yield Inversion.  Recession

 

              Every time.

 

                                                  ::::::

 

                             September 17, 2022 Seminar

 

                                “How I Stopped Worrying

                           and Learned to Love Inflation”